MOBA Market share

(Gavin Rainey) #1

With the introduction of games like Infinite Crisis, and Blizzards Heroes of the Storm, do you think there will be any substantial take in the market share currently owned by League of Legends and DOTA2 who are now battling month by month for the lion share.

Do you think DOTA is the only title to beat LoL or will the big investment and recruitment from Riot games help stop this?

Do we have any smite players here?


(Matt) #2

I think MOBAs are probably the single most interesting Genre as it’s one that has only been developed and flourished ‘recently’. Sure the original DoTA is old as hell and everything is still being perfected now, but from my knowledge it’s the only true ‘new’ genre to pop up and get super popular. Everything else like Roguelikes, Puzzle-Platformers, FPS-Arcade-RTS-RPGs are all just hybrid mixtures.

Now of course, with an ENTIRE new genre, there is a lot to explore. Like with fighting games or action games or more recently, MMORPGs, they have different IP to use. With MOBAs we see this happening in full throttle as the MMO market dies down… Infinite Crisis is the Marvel IP, Heroes of the Storm is the (true) Blizzard IP, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Star Wars MOBA sometime down the line either, maybe even something as crazy as LoTR.

The problem is, in my opinion, is that it’s easy to compare this to what happened with MMORPGs.

The two graphs below show the GLOBAL subscriptions for MMOs between 1m - 12m subs and 150k-1m subs.

There are three things that really stand out to me in these that I think will replicate in MOBAs.

Firstly. World of Warcraft is by far and large the BIGGEST game out of the lot. Sure you can make arguments about certain games having multiple subscriptions for multi-boxing, botting etc but as every game has a similar amount of this and it’s incredibly hard to keep track of, let’s just use these numbers. So WoW is the biggest. By a pretty big margin. It always has been, and sure it’s dwindling in numbers BUT, so is every other MMORPG out there.

Secondly. games specifically made for their respective IP (Warhammer Online, Age of Conan) have SPIKES in popularity when they release due to the original fanbase, but then they die, quickly. This is usually because the WoW players in this case see a similar game mechanically with a recognizable IP and quickly want to experience that, but soon they realise it really is just a weaker version of the original in multiple ways (mechanics, UI, even just the graphic design that they’re used too) and go back again.

Thirdly, SANDBOX titles increased the most steadily over time. Second Life and Eve have both steadily increased over time with relatively little losses over the entire span of the games. They retain their userbase and just add more, which is why I believe Everquest - Next was trying to branch out into that field with the house/fortress building etc.

So with MOBAs, I see a lot of games coming out specific to certain IPs, but I believe they’ll only get spikes in popularity and then fall off heavily. With the pure amount of cash being pumped into LoL and DoTA through leagues, tournaments, sponsors, and the fact that both of those games have had more time to be balanced (HAHAH JK) and developed mechanically to the point where no-one has the patience to wait through ALPHA and BETA stages of the new games.

It’s also harking back to the old question. If I’ve spent 100+ days of my life playing WoW, why would I throw it all away?
Same goes for MOBAs, accounts usually have some sort of level, you invest money (even if it’s f2p BAR DoTA) to boost your champion pool etc. Plus the fact that each MOBA has so much information, what would drive you to ditch all your previous knowledge that you’ve invested to much time into.

Obviously, people do, people always will, but does it make a big difference in the overall outcome? Not really.

DoTA and LoL have enough differences that they will both stand to make a lot of money, with LoL maybe edging ahead because of the insane things RIOT have done in terms of the LCS and I think it has a little bit more global appeal due to that.

Other MOBAs will live and become cash cows for their respective IPs but will never be anywhere near those two. Idgaf which gaming organisation have teams for SMITE. They’re just doing it because the game has such a small playerbase, if you get the top 5 people in that small playerbase then they have a big chance of winning everything, which means easy money for you. Doesn’t mean the game is popular or has a big market share.


(Gavin Rainey) #3

Way to fucking kill this thread with your post @Matt

don’t post so well in future.

How to post by Gav:

put head to left of keyboard
roll right
headbutt enter key

(Matt) #4

3ed c45vrjkm,íó-[/;;

While doing this I managed to logout and put on 300% magnifier.


(Anthony) #5

I feel like with League of Legends that it’s walking on a tight-rope high in the sky, and it will make it to the other side and succeed or fall to it’s certain death, with no middle ground. While the game and developers are doing everything right for eSports and taking a pro-active approach to balance, content, and the like, there are so many things hurting the game, and when I look at DoTA 2 it just feels like a “finished” and more polished game.

Riot just has to make sure they do not let the game get to the point where player base drops off, because right now the patience of the average player is being put to the test on a regular basis, with things such as a large amount of bugs that appear with every patch, reduced performance in game with every patch, constant server issues (yeah yea, I know there’s been some DDoS attacks to), and a real lack of major game features such as a proper client, replay system, sandbox mode, etc.

I do think there is some serious competition to the big two, if done right, Blizzard could make a dent with Heroes of the Storm, just because of how big Blizzard are and their game portfolio and position in eSports.

(Gavin Rainey) #6

The void, or the chasm of small to large business it is not uncommon for companies to mess up and disappear.

You are right about Bliz now too. This isn’t the easiest market but they can throw money at people to make this game work

Steam has been shit recently too, i don’t know what it is like for DoTA but CS:GO has been wonky for a little while.

(Rob Thomas) #7

It’s been down for Dota as well.

In response to the OP:

The problem I generally see with LoL is the fact that Riot pump so much of their own money into it. While it’s fine at the moment, what will happen when they stop? Will there still be as many big tournaments? Will they still they the big prize pools? Will there still be leagues such as LCS?

If you look at Dota, other than TI (The International) Valve just leave it alone and allows it to be self sustainable. There’s leagues/tournaments such as Dream League, DreamHack, Starladder, MLG, as well as others that are run and funded by other companies. With the (some what) recent addition of in-game tickets to view the tournaments in game, they’re also been able to increase the prize pool using the money they’ve received from the sales.

So in conclusion, if things carry on the way they are, I don’t see Dota being bigger than LoL just because of how much Riot are investing into it. However, if for whatever reason Riot decide to stop the money, I feel Dota will surpass LoL.